The 2001 recession and Great Recession resulted in a large increase in poverty among young men without a college degree. By comparison, labor force participation among young men with at least a bachelor’s degree has remained relatively stable these past few decades. Today, 94% of young men with at least a bachelor’s degree are in the labor force. Similarly, 96% of young men whose highest attainment was some college education were in the labor force in 1970. In 1970, almost all young men whose highest educational attainment was a high school diploma (98%) were in the labor force, meaning they were working or looking for work. By 2013, only 88% of high school-educated young men were in the labor force.
It accounts for approximately 80% of the workers who contribute to the nation’s GDP. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee („DTTL”), its network of member firms, and their related entities. DTTL and each of its member firms are legally separate and independent entities. DTTL (also referred to as „Deloitte Global”) does not provide services to clients. In the United States, Deloitte refers to one or more of the US member firms of DTTL, their related entities that operate using the „Deloitte” name in the United States and their respective affiliates. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
This measure takes into account the contributions of everyone in the household. For this analysis, we excluded young men who are living in their parents’ home (about 20% of 25- to 34-year-old men in 2023). Connect with us to structure your portfolio for a changing global economy. The IMF’s April 2026 outlook is a reminder that global growth does not move in a straight line. Morgan Stanley Research’s key investment themes for this year are Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World and Societal Shifts. H&H Group is delivering this model across its three segments of adult, baby, and pet nutrition and care, where the company’s focus is on providing nutrition and wellness for the whole family.
Low inventory and high-interest rates have plagued the real estate sector for the past several months. Overall, household debt increased 4.8% between November 2022 and November 2023. The Conference Board also reported an increase in consumer confidence in early 2024.
The job market connects people looking for work with employers searching for talent. A strong job market signals a healthy, growing economy, as companies add jobs and compete for workers. When unemployment rises and job growth slows or declines, it often points to an economy that’s losing momentum. As of 2023, 69% of young women with Soltaros OÜ a high school education were in the labor force, as were 78% of young women with some college education. Today’s level of labor force participation for young women without a college degree is slightly lower than the level seen around 2000.
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A recent Gallup survey1 revealed that 45% of Americans believe moderate drinking is detrimental to their health, with participation in initiatives like “Dry January” rising significantly. More than one-third of adults 21 or older, and self-reported alcohol drinkers, plan to participate in 2025. Traditional categories like coffee and soda are also being redefined, as consumers seek new flavors and experiences. For instance, many young consumers are opting for major coffee retailers’ non-coffee beverages, highlighting a shift in preferences. If you are weighing what these cross currents mean for your own plan, it helps to translate economic signals into portfolio decisions that match your time horizon and risk tolerance.
On the other hand, the price of electricity was up only 4.6%—the slowest increase since May 2025. The United States mostly uses domestically produced natural gas for electricity, the price of which has not been affected by events in the Middle East. In any event, past episodes of inflation and recessions have sometimes been exacerbated by central bankers’ monetary policy mistakes.
Small Ships, Big Opportunities: Unlocking Cruising Demand
Advisors Tom O’Neill, Dave Sojka, Jesse Hardin, and Maria Urtubey, and Emmaline Aliff weighed in on AI adoption, monetary policy, consumer stress, and the growing divide within the U.S. economy. Expenditures by foreign direct investors to acquire, establish, or expand U.S. businesses totaled $151.0 billion in 2024, according to preliminary statistics released today by the U.S. Expenditures decreased $24.9 billion, or 14.2 percent, from $176.0 billion (revised) in 2023 and were below the annual average of $277.2 billion for 2014–2023.
- Initial claims fell to 202,000 for the week ended March 28, below the 212,000 economist estimate cited by Bloomberg, and continuing claims rose to 1.84 million.
- Meanwhile, the survey also found that consumer expectations for inflation in the next 12 months increased sharply in March to the highest level since August 2025.
- The share of young men with a college degree who work full time, year-round has remained fairly steady in recent decades – at about 80% – and hasn’t fluctuated with good or bad economic cycles.
- We will continue to watch and see how businesses and governments react to armed conflicts, trade disruptions, and slow GDP growth.
Please see /about to learn more about our global network of member firms. The survey also found that consumer expectations of inflation have surged. Expectations for year-ahead inflation rose from 3.4% in February to 3.8% in March and 4.8% in April. However, it remains well below the recent peak of 6.6% in May 2025, when consumers were worried about the potential impact of the recently announced US tariffs. Disruptions to official economic data complicate policymaking and forecasting. However, private-sector and alternative data sources have become increasingly important, helping fill gaps when government data is delayed or unavailable.
The cumulative decline from 2011 (14.9 percent) to 2014 (14.0 percent) was statistically significant. In the previous decade, food insecurity increased from 10.7 percent in 2001 to 11.9 percent in 2004, declined to about 11 percent in 2005‒07, then increased significantly in 2008 (to 14.6 percent). Food insecurity remained essentially unchanged (that is, the difference was not statistically significant) at that level in 2009 and 2010.
Increasing Consumer Confidence While Keeping An Eye On Debt
Plus, higher commodity prices could boost the cost of producing those products, thereby leading to higher prices paid for Chinese products and/or lower profit margins for Chinese companies. Although global demand has eased, it has not been nearly sufficient to offset the decline in supply. This suggests that, if the conflict continues, prices may have to rise much further to bring demand down to the level of supply. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices have fallen as investors reassess the likelihood of the conflict ending soon. And the drop in oil prices has probably influenced the rebound in equity prices.
By 2023, 78% of these women worked full time, full year, the highest share it’s ever been. Young women without a college degree have steadily increased their work hours over the decades. The past 10 years in particular have seen a significant increase in the share of employed noncollege women working full time, full year (with the exception of 2021). The decline in labor force participation for noncollege women partly reflects the declining labor force participation for mothers with children under 18 years of age.
In a special holiday edition of the Market Pulse podcast, the Equifax Advisors reflected on key economic themes that shaped 2025 and took a look ahead at what you should know as we begin 2026. More than 7 million Gen Zers already have student debt and nearly half of 2024 college graduates say they’ll graduate with debt. In the face of inflation, nearly three-fourths Gen Zers are now spending less on essentials like gas and groceries and plan to keep those spending habits for at least a year. Bank of America’s survey revealed the financial concerns and opportunities for Gen Z.
For example, when job growth appears strong, the numbers could be deceptive because hiring may be concentrated in narrow sectors of the economy or in less productive roles. If unemployment remains steady but hiring numbers are sluggish, it could indicate that companies are “hoarding” employees if it becomes challenging to replace them, while adding few new hires. As such, investors are now expecting acceleration in core inflation, which in turn, would likely lead to a shift in monetary policy on the part of the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, the futures market is pricing a strong likelihood that the ECB will raise the benchmark interest rate one or two times before the end of 2026. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently said that, if inflation rises in the eurozone “significantly and persistently” above the ECB’s target, it might be necessary to raise the benchmark interest rate. On the other hand, if a rise in inflation is seen as temporary, and if there is risk to economic growth, the ECB could decide to leave rates unchanged.
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in February 2026 according to the U.S. The deficit increased from $54.7 billion in January (revised) to $57.3 billion in February, as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $2.5 billion in February to $84.6 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.2 billion in February to $27.3 billion.
In a downturn, consumer confidence wanes, retailers struggle, and businesses are forced to deal with uncertainty. And in times of growth, critical infrastructure and innovation can be built out. U.S. Treasury securities are the world’s safe-haven asset — not only because of their low default risk but also because of the depth and liquidity of the market in which they are traded. In March 2020, that safe-haven role was tested when COVID unleashed a dash for cash caused by severe selling of Treasuries. The dealers who handle essentially all investor trading of Treasuries could not adequately handle the surge of demands. Catastrophe was averted only when the Federal Reserve took unprecedented steps to restore liquidity in the market.
Other employees left their jobs and started their own businesses or stayed home to take care of loved ones. The childcare sector lost hundreds of thousands of jobs during the pandemic and nearly 40,000 of them have not been reestablished. The construction industry alone needs to attract half a million new workers in 2024 to keep up with demand.
In addition, the share of workers who are not employed and not looking for work due to disability or illness is higher than its pre-pandemic trend. A nation’s central bank, which in the United States, is the Federal Reserve, typically controls monetary policy. The Fed’s management of monetary policy can have a significant impact on the shape of the nation’s economy. Congress’ mandate for the Fed is to maintain price stability (manage inflation); promote maximum sustainable employment (low unemployment); and provide for moderate, long-term interest rates. Fed monetary policy influences the cost of many forms of consumer debt such as mortgages, credit cards and automobile loans.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates increased following the last two rate cuts by the Fed due to change in the 10 Year Treasury rates. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted many sectors of the economy, including labor markets. My research with Evan Soltas estimates that excess COVID-19-related absences from work through mid-2022 resulted in approximately 500,000 fewer people participating in the labor force. Other work has shown that more working-age adults are reporting serious difficulty remembering, concentrating or making decisions, and the increases are higher among women and non-college graduates.
While prices rose only 3.2 percent this year, they increased by a cumulative 18.6 percent over the last 3 years, and these prior price increases are still weighing negatively on consumers. However, we also found that the downward drag from inflation has a half-life of about a year. This means that, if inflation continues to ease over the next 12 months, sentiment should improve as the post-pandemic inflation surge recedes. The U.S. economy is strong by all objective measures, with low unemployment, robust GDP growth, and easing inflation. Yet consumer sentiment is decidedly weak, with measures of the economic indicator at levels last seen during the global financial crisis. Given the strong correlation between consumer sentiment and election outcomes, it’s especially important to understand why there’s a disconnect ahead of this November’s vote.
More than half of Gen Zers have bought an item after watching an influencer review the product on social media. More than 40% of marketers plan to increase their spending on creator content. Much of the creator economy revolves around brands’ marketing dollars. Many times, these weather events prove to be a financial disaster for homeowners as well as insurance companies. One survey reported that nearly 80% of millennials would take on a mortgage rate above 7% and 30% say they plan to max out their budget when buying a home in 2024. For reference, mortgage rates were hovering around 3.2% at the beginning of 2022.
If, however, energy prices remain elevated for a sustained period of time, it will likely lead to higher non-energy inflation. In March, core prices were up 2.6% in March versus a year earlier—up from 2.5% in February and the highest core inflation level since December. Core prices were up 0.2% from the previous month—the same as in February.